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U.S. House · All Montana races

Montana District 2

Solid R
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Brian Miller
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Troy Downing
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Troy Downing wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Troy Downing +24.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Downing +24.0; 80 in 100 fall between Downing +31.3 and Downing +16.8.

Downing +30Downing +20Downing +10Miller +10Miller +20Miller +30Tie

The candidates

Troy DowningIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Brian Miller
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Michael Eisenhauer
Independent
Patrick McCracken
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Brian Miller against Troy Downing yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Miller 0, Downing 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+15.0roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyDowning +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateDowning +24.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastDowning +24.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Brian Miller <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Brian Miller <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Brian Miller <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #234 of 421