Ethan Baker
Republican
U.S. House · open seat · All Michigan races
Michigan District 11
Solid D
Jeremy Moss
Democratic
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Ethan Baker
Republican
<1 in 100
Jeremy Moss wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jeremy Moss +27.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moss +27.6; 80 in 100 fall between Moss +20.3 and Moss +34.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jeremy Moss
Democratic
Farid Ishac
Libertarian
Anil Kumar
Independent
Ryan Teasdale
Green
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Jeremy Moss against Ethan Baker yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Moss 100, Baker 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Moss +27.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Moss +27.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jeremy Moss >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jeremy Moss >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jeremy Moss >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate
House races, closest first · this is #233 of 421