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U.S. House · All Michigan races

Michigan District 2

Solid R
Compare
Ben Ambrose
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
John Moolenaar
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

John Moolenaar wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to John Moolenaar +24.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moolenaar +24.0; 80 in 100 fall between Moolenaar +31.3 and Moolenaar +16.7.

Moolenaar +30Moolenaar +20Moolenaar +10Ambrose +10Ambrose +20Ambrose +30Tie

The candidates

Ben Ambrose
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
John MoolenaarIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Charlotte Magoon
Green
Richard Sills
Natural Law

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Ben Ambrose against John Moolenaar yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Ambrose 0, Moolenaar 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+15.0roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Ambrose +0.1In 2024 they ran 0.1 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyMoolenaar +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateMoolenaar +24.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMoolenaar +24.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Ben Ambrose <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Ben Ambrose <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ben Ambrose <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #232 of 421