Alma AdamsIncumbent
Democratic
U.S. House · All North Carolina races
North Carolina District 12
Solid D
Alma Adams
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jack Codiga
Republican
0 in 100
Alma Adams wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Alma Adams +61.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Adams +61.3; 80 in 100 fall between Adams +54.0 and Adams +68.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jack Codiga
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Alma Adams against Jack Codiga yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Adams 100, Codiga 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+24.0 | roughly 48 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Adams +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Adams +61.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Adams +61.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Alma Adams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Alma Adams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Alma Adams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #366 of 421