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U.S. House · All North Dakota races

North Dakota at-large

Solid R
Compare
Trygve Hammer
Democratic-NPL
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Julie Fedorchak
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Julie Fedorchak wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Julie Fedorchak +30.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fedorchak +30.0; 80 in 100 fall between Fedorchak +37.2 and Fedorchak +22.7.

Fedorchak +30Fedorchak +20Fedorchak +10Hammer +10Hammer +20Hammer +30Tie

The candidates

Julie FedorchakIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Trygve Hammer
Democratic-NPL
No biography on file yet.
Helene Neville
Independent
Charles Tuttle
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Trygve Hammer against Julie Fedorchak yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Hammer 0, Fedorchak 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyFedorchak +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateFedorchak +30.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastFedorchak +30.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Trygve Hammer 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Trygve Hammer 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Trygve Hammer 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #367 of 421