Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All New Jersey races

New Jersey District 11

Solid D
Compare
Analilia Mejia
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Joe Hathaway
Republican
<1 in 100

Analilia Mejia wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Analilia Mejia +23.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mejia +23.3; 80 in 100 fall between Mejia +16.1 and Mejia +30.6.

Hathaway +30Hathaway +20Hathaway +10Mejia +10Mejia +20Mejia +30Tie

The candidates

Joe Hathaway
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Analilia MejiaIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Alan Bond
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Analilia Mejia against Joe Hathaway yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Mejia 100, Hathaway 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+5.0roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyMejia +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateMejia +23.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMejia +23.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Analilia Mejia >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Analilia Mejia >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Analilia Mejia >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #237 of 421