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U.S. House · All New York races

New York District 5

Solid D
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Gregory Meeks
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
George Marsh
Republican
0 in 100

Gregory Meeks wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Gregory Meeks +59.8.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Meeks +59.8; 80 in 100 fall between Meeks +52.6 and Meeks +67.0.

Marsh +30Marsh +20Marsh +10Meeks +10Meeks +20Meeks +30Tie

The candidates

George Marsh
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Gregory MeeksIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Gregory Meeks against George Marsh yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Meeks 100, Marsh 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+24.0roughly 48 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Marsh +1.5In 2024 they ran 3.0 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyMeeks +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateMeeks +59.8±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMeeks +59.8±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Gregory Meeks 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Gregory Meeks 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Gregory Meeks 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #351 of 421