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U.S. House · open seat · All New Jersey races

New Jersey District 12

Solid D
Compare
Adam Hamawy
Democratic
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Gregg Mele
Republican
0 in 100

Adam Hamawy wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Adam Hamawy +35.6.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hamawy +35.6; 80 in 100 fall between Hamawy +28.4 and Hamawy +43.0.

Mele +30Mele +20Mele +10Hamawy +10Hamawy +20Hamawy +30Tie

The candidates

Adam Hamawy
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Gregg Mele
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Andres Jinete
Green
Winston Jordan
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Adam Hamawy against Gregg Mele yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Hamawy 100, Mele 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+13.0roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateHamawy +35.6±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastHamawy +35.6±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Adam Hamawy 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Adam Hamawy 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Adam Hamawy 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #350 of 421