Joseph Chou
Republican
U.S. House · All New York races
New York District 6
Solid D
Grace Meng
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Joseph Chou
Republican
<1 in 100
Grace Meng wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Grace Meng +29.7.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Meng +29.7; 80 in 100 fall between Meng +22.4 and Meng +37.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Grace MengIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Grace Meng against Joseph Chou yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Meng 100, Chou 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Meng +4.5 | In 2024 they ran 8.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Meng +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Meng +29.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Meng +29.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Grace Meng >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Grace Meng >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Grace Meng >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #239 of 421