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U.S. House · All Pennsylvania races

Pennsylvania District 4

Solid D
Compare
Madeleine Dean
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Aurora Stuski
Republican
<1 in 100

Madeleine Dean wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Madeleine Dean +29.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Dean +29.4; 80 in 100 fall between Dean +22.2 and Dean +36.6.

Stuski +30Stuski +20Stuski +10Dean +10Dean +20Dean +30Tie

The candidates

Madeleine DeanIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Aurora Stuski
Republican
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Madeleine Dean against Aurora Stuski yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Dean 100, Stuski 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+8.0roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Dean +0.1In 2024 they ran 0.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyDean +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateDean +29.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastDean +29.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Madeleine Dean >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Madeleine Dean >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Madeleine Dean >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #240 of 421