Michael DeCillis
Democratic
Raised$156K
Cash on hand$86K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New York races
New York District 11
Solid R
Michael DeCillis
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Nicole Malliotakis
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Nicole Malliotakis wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nicole Malliotakis +18.7.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Malliotakis +18.7; 80 in 100 fall between Malliotakis +26.0 and Malliotakis +11.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Nicole MalliotakisIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1980)
Nicole Malliotakis is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 11th congressional district. Her district covers Staten Island and a portion of southern Brooklyn. Wikipedia
Raised$3.3M
Cash on hand$2.8M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Michael DeCillis against Nicole Malliotakis yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: DeCillis <1, Malliotakis >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Malliotakis +2.2 | In 2024 they ran 4.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Malliotakis +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Malliotakis +18.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Malliotakis +18.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Michael DeCillis <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Michael DeCillis <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Michael DeCillis <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #155 of 421