Mike Croley
Democratic
Raised$104K
Cash on hand$23K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Tennessee races
Tennessee District 6
Solid R
Mike Croley
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Johnny Garrett
Republican
>99 in 100
Johnny Garrett wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Johnny Garrett +18.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Garrett +18.8; 80 in 100 fall between Garrett +26.1 and Garrett +11.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Johnny Garrett
Republican · American politician (born 1978)
Johnny Claude Garrett is an American attorney and politician from the state of Tennessee. A member of the Republican Party, Garrett has represented the 45th district of the Tennessee House of Representatives, based in the northern suburbs of Nashville, since 2019. Wikipedia
Raised$2.8M
Cash on hand$297K
Through 2026-09-30
Christopher Monday
Independent
Angus Purdy
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Mike Croley against Johnny Garrett yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Croley <1, Garrett >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+13.0 | roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Garrett +18.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Garrett +18.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Mike Croley <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Mike Croley <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mike Croley <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for governor
House races, closest first · this is #156 of 421