Aaron Gies
Democratic
Raised$584K
Cash on hand$231K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New York races
New York District 23
Solid R
Aaron Gies
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Nick Langworthy
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Nick Langworthy wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nick Langworthy +19.5.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Langworthy +19.5; 80 in 100 fall between Langworthy +26.8 and Langworthy +12.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Nick LangworthyIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1981)
Nicholas Andrew Langworthy is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 23rd district since 2023. He was formerly the chair of the New York State Republican Committee. Wikipedia
Raised$2.6M
Cash on hand$2.6M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Aaron Gies against Nick Langworthy yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gies 0, Langworthy 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Langworthy +3.9 | In 2024 they ran 7.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Langworthy +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Langworthy +19.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Langworthy +19.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Aaron Gies <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Aaron Gies <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Aaron Gies <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #174 of 421