Bethany Mann
Democratic
U.S. House · All Missouri races
Missouri District 3
Solid R
Bethany Mann
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Bob Onder
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Bob Onder wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bob Onder +20.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Onder +20.0; 80 in 100 fall between Onder +27.4 and Onder +12.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Bob OnderIncumbent
Republican
Jim Higgins
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Bethany Mann against Bob Onder yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Mann 0, Onder 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+13.0 | roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Onder +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Onder +20.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Onder +20.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Bethany Mann <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Bethany Mann <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Bethany Mann <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #173 of 421