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U.S. House · All Indiana races

Indiana District 2

Solid R
Compare
Jamee Decio
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Rudy Yakym
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Rudy Yakym wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rudy Yakym +21.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Yakym +21.0; 80 in 100 fall between Yakym +28.3 and Yakym +13.8.

Yakym +30Yakym +20Yakym +10Decio +10Decio +20Decio +30Tie

The candidates

Jamee Decio
Democratic
Raised
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$632K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Rudy YakymIncumbent
Republican
Raised
$6.4M
Cash on hand
$831K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
William Henry
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Jamee Decio against Rudy Yakym yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Decio 0, Yakym 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+13.0roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Decio +0.8In 2024 they ran 1.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyYakym +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateYakym +21.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastYakym +21.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Jamee Decio <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Jamee Decio <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jamee Decio <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #172 of 421