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U.S. House · All Ohio races

Ohio District 4

Solid R
Compare
Joshua Kolasinski
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Jim Jordan
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Jim Jordan wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jim Jordan +36.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Jordan +36.0; 80 in 100 fall between Jordan +43.2 and Jordan +28.7.

Jordan +30Jordan +20Jordan +10Kolasinski +10Kolasinski +20Kolasinski +30Tie

The candidates

Jim JordanIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Joshua Kolasinski
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Tracey Tackett
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Joshua Kolasinski against Jim Jordan yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Kolasinski 0, Jordan 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+21.0roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyJordan +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateJordan +36.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastJordan +36.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Joshua Kolasinski 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Joshua Kolasinski 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Joshua Kolasinski 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #370 of 421