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U.S. House · All Oklahoma races

Oklahoma District 4

Solid R
Compare
Mitchell Jacob
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Tom Cole
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Tom Cole wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tom Cole +27.8.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cole +27.7; 80 in 100 fall between Cole +35.1 and Cole +20.5.

Cole +30Cole +20Cole +10Jacob +10Jacob +20Jacob +30Tie

The candidates

Tom ColeIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Mitchell Jacob
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Rocco Bonacci
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Mitchell Jacob against Tom Cole yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Jacob 0, Cole 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+17.0roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Jacob +0.2In 2024 they ran 0.5 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyCole +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCole +27.8±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCole +27.8±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Mitchell Jacob 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Mitchell Jacob 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mitchell Jacob 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #376 of 421