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U.S. House · All Texas races

Texas District 20

Solid D
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Joaquin Castro
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Edgardo Rafael Baez
Republican
0 in 100

Joaquin Castro wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Joaquin Castro +45.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Castro +45.3; 80 in 100 fall between Castro +38.1 and Castro +52.6.

Baez +30Baez +20Baez +10Castro +10Castro +20Castro +30Tie

The candidates

Joaquin CastroIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Edgardo Rafael Baez
Republican
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Joaquin Castro against Edgardo Rafael Baez yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Castro 100, Baez 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+16.0roughly 32 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyCastro +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCastro +45.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCastro +45.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Joaquin Castro 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Joaquin Castro 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Joaquin Castro 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #399 of 421