Peter Crosby
Democratic
Raised$138K
Cash on hand$49K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Utah races
Utah District 2
Solid R
Peter Crosby
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Blake Moore
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Blake Moore wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Blake Moore +4.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Blake Moore +26.5. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moore +15.3; 80 in 100 fall between Moore +20.3 and Moore +10.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Blake MooreIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1980)
Blake David Moore is an American politician and former diplomat from the state of Utah. He is the U.S. representative for Utah's 1st congressional district, serving since January 2021. Since November 8, 2023, he has been the vice chair of the House Republican Conference. Wikipedia
Raised$2.7M
Cash on hand$1.6M
Through 2026-09-30
Carlton Bowen
Independent American
Daniel Cottam
Libertarian
Robert Moesinger
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Moore +4.8 across 1 poll testing Peter Crosby against Blake Moore.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse ResearchC+ for Utah Debate Commission | Sep 10–Sep 24 | 515 LV | Moore +5.0 | Moore +4.8 | 0.38 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Crosby 0, Moore 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Moore +4.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+15.0 | roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Moore +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Moore +26.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Moore +15.3 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Peter Crosby 18 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Peter Crosby <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Peter Crosby <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #178 of 421