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U.S. House · All California races

California District 25

Solid D
Compare
Raul Ruiz
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Joe Males
Republican
<1 in 100

Raul Ruiz wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Raul Ruiz +21.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Ruiz +21.3; 80 in 100 fall between Ruiz +14.0 and Ruiz +28.5.

Males +30Males +20Males +10Ruiz +10Ruiz +20Ruiz +30Tie

The candidates

Joe Males
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Raul RuizIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Raul Ruiz against Joe Males yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Ruiz 100, Males 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+4.0roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyRuiz +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateRuiz +21.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastRuiz +21.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Raul Ruiz >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Raul Ruiz >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Raul Ruiz >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
  • Incumbent advanced to general

House races, closest first · this is #179 of 421