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U.S. House · All Illinois races

Illinois District 17

Solid D
Compare
Eric Sorensen
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Dillan Vancil
Republican
<1 in 100

Eric Sorensen wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Eric Sorensen +21.5.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Sorensen +21.5; 80 in 100 fall between Sorensen +14.2 and Sorensen +28.8.

Vancil +30Vancil +20Vancil +10Sorensen +10Sorensen +20Sorensen +30Tie

The candidates

Eric SorensenIncumbent
Democratic
Raised
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Dillan Vancil
Republican
Raised
$398K
Cash on hand
$51K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Eric Sorensen against Dillan Vancil yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Sorensen 100, Vancil 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+3.0roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Sorensen +0.2In 2024 they ran 0.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencySorensen +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateSorensen +21.5±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastSorensen +21.5±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Eric Sorensen >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Eric Sorensen >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Eric Sorensen >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #180 of 421