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U.S. House · All Michigan races

Michigan District 3

Solid D
Compare
Hillary Scholten
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Terri DeBoer
Republican
<1 in 100

Hillary Scholten wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Hillary Scholten +21.1.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Scholten +21.0; 80 in 100 fall between Scholten +13.8 and Scholten +28.3.

DeBoer +30DeBoer +20DeBoer +10Scholten +10Scholten +20Scholten +30Tie

The candidates

Terri DeBoer
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Hillary ScholtenIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Joe Jock
Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Hillary Scholten against Terri DeBoer yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Scholten 100, DeBoer 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+4.0roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record DeBoer +0.2In 2024 they ran 0.4 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyScholten +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateScholten +21.1±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastScholten +21.1±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Hillary Scholten >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Hillary Scholten >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Hillary Scholten >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #181 of 421