Kailee Buller
Republican
U.S. House · All New York races
New York District 22
Solid D
John Mannion
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Kailee Buller
Republican
<1 in 100
John Mannion wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to John Mannion +21.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mannion +21.3; 80 in 100 fall between Mannion +14.0 and Mannion +28.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
John MannionIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested John Mannion against Kailee Buller yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Mannion 100, Buller 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Mannion +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Mannion +21.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Mannion +21.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: John Mannion >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: John Mannion >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: John Mannion >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #182 of 421