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U.S. House · All Pennsylvania races

Pennsylvania District 17

Solid D
Compare
Chris Deluzio
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Tony Guy
Republican
<1 in 100

Chris Deluzio wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chris Deluzio +21.5.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Deluzio +21.4; 80 in 100 fall between Deluzio +14.2 and Deluzio +28.7.

Guy +30Guy +20Guy +10Deluzio +10Deluzio +20Deluzio +30Tie

The candidates

Chris DeluzioIncumbent
Democratic
Raised
$3.7M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Tony Guy
Republican
Raised
$208K
Cash on hand
$35K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Chris Deluzio against Tony Guy yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Deluzio 100, Guy 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+3.0roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Guy +0.3In 2024 they ran 0.6 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyDeluzio +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateDeluzio +21.5±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastDeluzio +21.5±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Chris Deluzio >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Chris Deluzio >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Chris Deluzio >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #183 of 421