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U.S. House · All Arizona races

Arizona District 4

Solid D
Compare
Greg Stanton
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Zuhdi Jasser
Republican
<1 in 100

Greg Stanton wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Greg Stanton +21.1.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Stanton +21.0; 80 in 100 fall between Stanton +13.7 and Stanton +28.4.

Jasser +30Jasser +20Jasser +10Stanton +10Stanton +20Stanton +30Tie

The candidates

Zuhdi Jasser
Republican
Raised
$733K
Cash on hand
$116K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Greg StantonIncumbent
Democratic
Raised
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Tisha Benoit
No Labels

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Greg Stanton against Zuhdi Jasser yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Stanton 100, Jasser 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+4.0roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Jasser +1.6In 2024 they ran 3.1 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyStanton +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateStanton +21.1±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastStanton +21.1±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Greg Stanton >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Greg Stanton >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Greg Stanton >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #184 of 421