Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Utah races

Utah District 3

Solid R
Compare
Kent Udell
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Celeste Maloy
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Celeste Maloy wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Celeste Maloy +17.1 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Celeste Maloy +36.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Maloy +26.2; 80 in 100 fall between Maloy +31.2 and Maloy +21.3.

Maloy +30Maloy +20Maloy +10Udell +10Udell +20Udell +30Tie

The candidates

Celeste MaloyIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Kent Udell
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Cassie Easley
Constitution
Adonis Hooslyn
Independent
Ayden Scott
Independent
Michael Stoddard
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Maloy +17.1 across 1 poll testing Kent Udell against Celeste Maloy.

Udell +1.0 since Sep 15, 2026
Maloy +30Maloy +20Maloy +10EvenUdell +10Udell +20Udell +30Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

PollsterDatesSampleResultAdjustedWeight
Lighthouse ResearchC+
for Utah Debate Commission
Sep 2–Sep 15508 LVMaloy +18.1Maloy +17.10.38

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Udell 0, Maloy 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)Maloy +17.1±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+21.0roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyMaloy +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateMaloy +36.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMaloy +26.2±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Kent Udell <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Kent Udell 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kent Udell 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #405 of 421