Ben McAdams
Democratic
U.S. House · All Utah races
Utah District 1
Solid D
Ben McAdams
Democratic
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Riley Owen
Republican
0 in 100
Ben McAdams wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Ben McAdams +43.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ben McAdams +33.6. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McAdams +38.5; 80 in 100 fall between McAdams +33.5 and McAdams +43.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Riley Owen
Republican
Elias Montgomery
Independent
Jesse West
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
The polling average stands at McAdams +43.0 across 1 poll testing Ben McAdams against Riley Owen.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse ResearchC+ for Utah Debate Commission | Aug 31–Sep 10 | 515 LV | McAdams +41.5 | McAdams +43.0 | 0.38 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: McAdams 100, Owen 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | McAdams +43.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+12.0 | roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | McAdams +33.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McAdams +38.5 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Ben McAdams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Ben McAdams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ben McAdams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- New representative to be elected
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