Greg Casar
Democratic
U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races
Texas District 37
Solid D
Greg Casar
Democratic
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Lauren Peña
Republican
0 in 100
Greg Casar wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Greg Casar +69.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Casar +69.6; 80 in 100 fall between Casar +62.3 and Casar +77.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Lauren Peña
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Greg Casar against Lauren Peña yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Casar 100, Peña 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+30.0 | roughly 60 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Casar +69.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Casar +69.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Greg Casar 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Greg Casar 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Greg Casar 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring. Democratic loss.
House races, closest first · this is #403 of 421