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U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races

Texas District 33

Solid D
Compare
Colin Allred
Democratic
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Patrick Gillespie
Republican
0 in 100

Colin Allred wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Colin Allred +45.6.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Allred +45.6; 80 in 100 fall between Allred +38.3 and Allred +52.9.

Gillespie +30Gillespie +20Gillespie +10Allred +10Allred +20Allred +30Tie

The candidates

Colin Allred
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Patrick Gillespie
Republican
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Colin Allred against Patrick Gillespie yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Allred 100, Gillespie 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateAllred +45.6±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastAllred +45.6±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Colin Allred 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Colin Allred 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Colin Allred 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate. Democratic loss.

House races, closest first · this is #402 of 421