Mike Kennedy wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Mike Kennedy +7.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Kennedy +26.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kennedy +17.0; 80 in 100 fall between Kennedy +21.9 and Kennedy +12.1.
Michael Stephen Kennedy is an American politician, attorney, and physician serving as the U.S. representative from Utah’s 3rd congressional district since 2025. He previously served as a Republican member of the Utah Senate from 2021 to 2025 and as a member of the Utah House of Representatives from 2013 to 2019. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Kennedy +7.8 across 1 poll testing Jonny Larsen against Mike Kennedy.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse ResearchC+ for Utah Debate Commission | Sep 8–Sep 17 | 513 LV | Kennedy +8.8 | Kennedy +7.8 | 0.38 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Larsen 0, Kennedy 100.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Kennedy +7.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+17.0 | roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Kennedy +26.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Kennedy +17.0 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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