Spencer Meline
Republican
Raised$154K
Cash on hand$101K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Washington races
Washington District 8
Solid D
Kim Schrier
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Spencer Meline
Republican
<1 in 100
Kim Schrier wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Kim Schrier +21.7.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Schrier +21.7; 80 in 100 fall between Schrier +14.5 and Schrier +29.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Kim SchrierIncumbent
Democratic
Raised$3.6M
Cash on hand$3.6M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Kim Schrier against Spencer Meline yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Schrier 100, Meline 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Meline +0.1 | In 2024 they ran 0.2 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Schrier +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Schrier +21.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Schrier +21.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kim Schrier >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kim Schrier >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kim Schrier >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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