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U.S. House · All Virginia races

Virginia District 11

Solid D
Compare
James Walkinshaw
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Arthur Purves
Republican
0 in 100

James Walkinshaw wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to James Walkinshaw +49.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Walkinshaw +49.3; 80 in 100 fall between Walkinshaw +42.0 and Walkinshaw +56.5.

Purves +30Purves +20Purves +10Walkinshaw +10Walkinshaw +20Walkinshaw +30Tie

The candidates

Arthur Purves
Republican
No biography on file yet.
James WalkinshawIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Dianne Blais
Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested James Walkinshaw against Arthur Purves yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Walkinshaw 100, Purves 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyWalkinshaw +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateWalkinshaw +49.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastWalkinshaw +49.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: James Walkinshaw 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: James Walkinshaw 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: James Walkinshaw 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #411 of 421