Jerry Carl
Republican
U.S. House · All Alabama races
Alabama District 1
Solid R
Clyde Jones Jr.
Democratic
0 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jerry Carl
Republican
100 in 100
Jerry Carl wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jerry Carl +24.4.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Carl +24.4; 80 in 100 fall between Carl +31.7 and Carl +17.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Clyde Jones Jr.
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Clyde Jones Jr. against Jerry Carl yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Jones 0, Carl 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+17.0 | roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Carl +24.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Carl +24.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Clyde Jones Jr. 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Clyde Jones Jr. 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Clyde Jones Jr. 0 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- New representative to be elected
House races, closest first · this is #245 of 421