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U.S. House · All Virginia races

Virginia District 10

Solid D
Compare
Suhas Subramanyam
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Dave Beckwith
Republican
<1 in 100

Suhas Subramanyam wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Suhas Subramanyam +25.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Subramanyam +25.3; 80 in 100 fall between Subramanyam +17.9 and Subramanyam +32.6.

Beckwith +30Beckwith +20Beckwith +10Subramanyam +10Subramanyam +20Subramanyam +30Tie

The candidates

Dave Beckwith
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Suhas SubramanyamIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Ahsen Malik
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Suhas Subramanyam against Dave Beckwith yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Subramanyam 100, Beckwith 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+6.0roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencySubramanyam +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateSubramanyam +25.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastSubramanyam +25.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Suhas Subramanyam >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Suhas Subramanyam >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Suhas Subramanyam >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #244 of 421