Bernadette Greene-Placentia
Democratic
Raised$237K
Cash on hand$22K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Arizona races
Arizona District 8
Solid R
Bernadette Greene-Placentia
Democratic
2 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Abraham Hamadeh
Republican · incumbent
98 in 100
Abraham Hamadeh wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Abraham Hamadeh +11.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hamadeh +11.9; 80 in 100 fall between Hamadeh +19.2 and Hamadeh +4.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Abraham HamadehIncumbent
Republican · American politician and prosecutor (born 1991)
Abraham Jamal Hamadeh is an American politician, attorney, U.S. Army intelligence officer, and former prosecutor currently serving as the U.S representative for Arizona's 8th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he is the first Arab American elected to Congress from Arizona. Wikipedia
Raised$1.4M
Cash on hand$138K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Bernadette Greene-Placentia against Abraham Hamadeh yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Greene-Placentia 2, Hamadeh 98.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Hamadeh +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hamadeh +11.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hamadeh +11.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Bernadette Greene-Placentia 2 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Bernadette Greene-Placentia 2 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Bernadette Greene-Placentia 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #88 of 421