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U.S. House · open seat · All Washington races

Washington District 4

Solid R
Compare
John Duresky
Democratic
2 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Amanda McKinney
Republican
98 in 100

Amanda McKinney wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Amanda McKinney +11.7.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McKinney +11.7; 80 in 100 fall between McKinney +19.0 and McKinney +4.4.

McKinney +30McKinney +20McKinney +10Duresky +10Duresky +20Duresky +30Tie

The candidates

John Duresky
Democratic
Raised
$388K
Cash on hand
$129K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Amanda McKinney
Republican
Raised
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$167K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested John Duresky against Amanda McKinney yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Duresky +1 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Duresky 2, McKinney 98.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+10.0roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateMcKinney +11.7±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMcKinney +11.7±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: John Duresky 2 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: John Duresky 2 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: John Duresky 2 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #87 of 421