Kristen McDonald Rivet wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Kristen McDonald Rivet +11.3.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Rivet +11.3; 80 in 100 fall between Rivet +4.0 and Rivet +18.4.
Kristen Lee McDonald Rivet is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served in the Michigan Senate for the 35th district, where she was the assistant majority floor leader from 2023 to 2025. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Kristen McDonald Rivet against Thomas Smith yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Rivet 98, Smith 2.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Rivet +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Rivet +11.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Rivet +11.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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