Shaun Finnie
Democratic
Raised$3.1M
Cash on hand$414K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races
Texas District 2
Solid R
Shaun Finnie
Democratic
3 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Steve Toth
Republican
98 in 100
Steve Toth wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Steve Toth +11.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Toth +11.1; 80 in 100 fall between Toth +18.4 and Toth +3.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Steve Toth
Republican · American businessman and politician (born 1960)
Steven Hixson Toth is an American businessman, pastor, and politician serving as a member of the Texas House of Representatives from District 15, The Woodlands area. Wikipedia
Raised$976K
Cash on hand$168K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Shaun Finnie against Steve Toth yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Finnie 3, Toth 98.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Toth +11.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Toth +11.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Shaun Finnie 3 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Shaun Finnie 3 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Shaun Finnie 3 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent lost renomination
House races, closest first · this is #85 of 421