Michael Masuda
Democratic
Raised$542K
Cash on hand$134K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All California races
California District 5
Solid R
Michael Masuda
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Tom McClintock
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Tom McClintock wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tom McClintock +14.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McClintock +14.9; 80 in 100 fall between McClintock +22.1 and McClintock +7.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Tom McClintockIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1956)
Thomas Miller McClintock II is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 5th congressional district since 2009. His district stretches from the Sacramento suburbs to the outer suburbs of Fresno; it includes Yosemite National Park. Wikipedia
Raised$1.2M
Cash on hand$275K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Michael Masuda against Tom McClintock yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Masuda 1, McClintock >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | McClintock +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | McClintock +14.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McClintock +14.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Michael Masuda <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Michael Masuda <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Michael Masuda <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
House races, closest first · this is #119 of 421