Henry Cuellar wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Henry Cuellar +14.2 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Henry Cuellar +7.8. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cuellar +11.1; 80 in 100 fall between Cuellar +6.2 and Cuellar +16.1.
Enrique Roberto "Henry" Cuellar is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 28th congressional district since 2005. He is a member of the Democratic Party, and his district spans from the Rio Grande toward the suburbs of San Antonio. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Cuellar +14.2 across 1 poll testing Henry Cuellar against Tano Tijerina.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 600 LV | Cuellar +11.0 | Cuellar +14.2 | 0.31 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Cuellar >99, Tijerina <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Cuellar +14.2 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Cuellar +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cuellar +7.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cuellar +11.2 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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