Michael Cloud wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Michael Cloud +15.7.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cloud +15.7; 80 in 100 fall between Cloud +23.0 and Cloud +8.5.
Michael Jonathan Cloud is an American politician representing Texas's 27th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives since 2018. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Tanya Lloyd against Michael Cloud yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Lloyd <1, Cloud >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Cloud +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cloud +15.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cloud +15.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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