Teresa Leger Fernández wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Teresa Leger Fernández +15.6.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fernández +15.6; 80 in 100 fall between Fernández +8.3 and Fernández +23.0.
Teresa Isabel Leger Fernández is an American attorney and politician representing New Mexico's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives since 2021. Wikipedia
Martin Ruben Zamora is an American politician and farmer, currently serving as a member of the New Mexico House of Representatives. A Republican, Zamora represents the 63rd district, which includes Santa Rosa, New Mexico. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Teresa Leger Fernández against Martin Zamora yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Fernández >99, Zamora <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Fernández +15.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Fernández +15.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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