Evan Hunt
Democratic
Raised$649K
Cash on hand$48K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 3
Solid R
Evan Hunt
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Keith Self
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Keith Self wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Keith Self +16.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Self +16.3; 80 in 100 fall between Self +23.7 and Self +9.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Keith SelfIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1953)
Keith Alan Self is an American politician, military veteran, and former judge who has been the United States representative for Texas's 3rd congressional district since 2023. He is a member of the Republican Party. From 2007 until 2018, he was the county judge for Collin County. Wikipedia
Raised$841K
Cash on hand$288K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Evan Hunt against Keith Self yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hunt <1, Self >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Self +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Self +16.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Self +16.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Evan Hunt <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Evan Hunt <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Evan Hunt <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #123 of 421