Darden Copeland
Democratic
Raised$1.1M
Cash on hand$121K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Tennessee races
Tennessee District 7
Solid R
Darden Copeland
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Matt Van Epps
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Matt Van Epps wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Matt Van Epps +16.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Epps +16.0; 80 in 100 fall between Epps +23.3 and Epps +8.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Matt Van EppsIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1983)
Matthew Robert Van Epps is an American politician and former Army officer serving as the U.S representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district since December 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he was elected in the 2025 special election. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Andrew Koontz
Independent
Lowell Reynolds
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Darden Copeland against Matt Van Epps yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Copeland <1, Epps >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Epps +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Epps +16.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Epps +16.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Darden Copeland <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Darden Copeland <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Darden Copeland <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #124 of 421