Craig Goldman wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Craig Goldman +16.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Goldman +16.0; 80 in 100 fall between Goldman +23.3 and Goldman +8.7.
Craig Alan Goldman is an American politician who is serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 12th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he previously represented the 97th district in the Texas House of Representatives from 2013 to 2025. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Angela Rodriguez Prilliman against Craig Goldman yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Prilliman <1, Goldman >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Goldman +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Goldman +16.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Goldman +16.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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