Dione Sims
Democratic
Raised$0K
Cash on hand$0K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 25
Solid R
Dione Sims
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Roger Williams
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Roger Williams wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Roger Williams +16.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Williams +16.0; 80 in 100 fall between Williams +23.4 and Williams +8.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Roger WilliamsIncumbent
Republican · American politician and businessman (born 1949)
John Roger Williams is an American businessman and politician who has been the U.S. representative for Texas's 25th congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, he served as secretary of state of Texas from 2004 to 2007. Wikipedia
Raised$1.6M
Cash on hand$1.2M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Dione Sims against Roger Williams yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Sims <1, Williams >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Williams +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Williams +16.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Williams +16.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Dione Sims <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Dione Sims <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Dione Sims <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #126 of 421