Salud CarbajalIncumbent
Democratic
U.S. House · All California races
California District 24
Solid D
Salud Carbajal
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Bob Smith
Republican
0 in 100
Salud Carbajal wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Salud Carbajal +39.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Carbajal +39.2; 80 in 100 fall between Carbajal +32.0 and Carbajal +46.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Bob Smith
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Salud Carbajal against Bob Smith yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Carbajal 100, Smith 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+13.0 | roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Carbajal +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Carbajal +39.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Carbajal +39.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Salud Carbajal 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Salud Carbajal 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Salud Carbajal 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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