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U.S. House · All California races

California District 28

Solid D
Compare
Judy Chu
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
April Verlato
Republican
0 in 100

Judy Chu wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Judy Chu +41.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Chu +41.2; 80 in 100 fall between Chu +34.0 and Chu +48.5.

Verlato +30Verlato +20Verlato +10Chu +10Chu +20Chu +30Tie

The candidates

Judy ChuIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
April Verlato
Republican
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Judy Chu against April Verlato yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Chu 100, Verlato 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+14.0roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyChu +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateChu +41.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastChu +41.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Judy Chu 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Judy Chu 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Judy Chu 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
  • Incumbent advanced to general

House races, closest first · this is #264 of 421