Mike Cargile
Republican
U.S. House · All California races
California District 35
Solid D
Norma Torres
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Cargile
Republican
<1 in 100
Norma Torres wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Norma Torres +25.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Torres +25.3; 80 in 100 fall between Torres +18.0 and Torres +32.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Norma TorresIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Norma Torres against Mike Cargile yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Torres 100, Cargile 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Torres +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Torres +25.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Torres +25.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Norma Torres >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Norma Torres >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Norma Torres >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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