Pedro Casas
Republican
U.S. House · All California races
California District 38
Solid D
Hilda Solis
Democratic
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Pedro Casas
Republican
<1 in 100
Hilda Solis wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Hilda Solis +25.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Solis +25.6; 80 in 100 fall between Solis +18.3 and Solis +32.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Hilda Solis
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Hilda Solis against Pedro Casas yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Solis 100, Casas 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Solis +25.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Solis +25.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Hilda Solis >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Hilda Solis >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Hilda Solis >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- New representative to be elected
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